LUBack of Napkin
Lululemon Athletica Inc. LULU
The bet you're really making is that Lululemon's black leggings still command full price, even as fewer Americans walk into its stores. You're betting the rest of the world, China most of all, grows fast enough to cover a shrinking home market, and that the brand is in a slump, not a permanent fade. Right now it looks worse than the price says: sales at stores open a year fell 12% across the Americas on lighter foot traffic, while half-year profit dropped 24%. You pay about 8 times last year's earnings, less than the stock has cost at any year-end in the twelve years anyone has measured it.
Key data
LULU · price with moving averages
Source: market data.
The business
Lululemon sells premium athletic apparel, the $98 pair of Align leggings and the $128 ABC pant, direct to shoppers through its own stores and website, at gross margins near 57% that mall brands never touch. The moat is the brand: two decades of a fit-and-fabric reputation that lets it hold full price where Nike and Under Armour discount. That premium is under two attacks at once. At home, newer labels like Alo and Vuori have taken the novelty, and Americas comparable sales fell 12% last quarter on fewer people through the door, lower conversion, and smaller orders. Abroad, especially China, the story inverts: the brand is still fresh and growing double digits, which is why total revenue slipped only 4% while its biggest region dropped 8%. The whole case is that gap, whether the world's growth outlasts the home market's decline.
Inside the complete Back of Napkin
- 01The business
- 02The numbers
- 03Management
- 04How it fails or surprises you
- 05Closing thoughts
- 06Methodology
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