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Back of Napkin

Palo Alto Networks, Inc. PANW

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The bet you're really making is that large corporations and governments keep consolidating all of their cybersecurity under one vendor, and keep choosing Palo Alto Networks to be that vendor. You're betting the strategy CEO Nikesh Arora calls platformization keeps working: instead of buying a firewall from one company and a cloud security tool from another, customers put network security, cloud security, security operations, and now identity software from the CyberArk acquisition Palo Alto just closed, all on one bill. Right now it is going well: the recurring software business grew 63% to $9.1 billion a year, and the revenue already promised under signed contracts reached $21.2 billion, up 34%. You pay about 24 times what the company sells in a year, above the 6.8 to 16.3 times range it has traded over the last twelve years, and about five times what other security companies fetch.

Key data

Price$333.26
52-week range$139.57 – $398.88
P/E, non-GAAP TTM / FY29E87x / 60x
Price / sales, TTM24x

PANW · price with moving averages

Daily · 6MWeekly · 3Y
$83$164$245$326$407 Sep '23Apr '24Nov '24Jul '25Feb '26Sep '26 BID
EMAs82140

Source: market data.

The business

Palo Alto sells cybersecurity to large enterprises and governments three ways. The oldest is network security: the firewalls that sit at the edge of a company's network, now sold increasingly as a cloud subscription. The second is cloud security, Prisma, which watches the applications companies run on Amazon and Microsoft. The third is security operations, Cortex, the software a security team stares at all day to catch attacks. In January it bought Chronosphere, and it has now closed CyberArk, issuing $18.5 billion in stock to add identity management, the software deciding who is allowed to log into what. Arora's pitch is simple: stop stitching together forty vendors, put it all on us, and it gets cheaper and works better together. That is platformization, and the whole thesis rests on it. The moat is switching costs. Once a security team runs its network, cloud, and alerts through Palo Alto, ripping it out is a year-long project nobody volunteers for.

Inside the complete Back of Napkin

  1. 01The business
  2. 02The numbers
  3. 03Management
  4. 04How it fails or surprises you
  5. 05Closing thoughts
  6. 06Methodology

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