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Back of Napkin

U.S. Bancorp USB

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Net income rose 20% in the June quarter and two of the three operating segments earned less, with all of the growth coming from capital markets and a broker-dealer bought on June 1.

The premium here has always been priced against the payments franchise, whose largest fee line grew 2.3%, so this turns on whether the fee acceleration is a mix shift into cyclical revenue or a durable change in what the bank earns.

Key data

Sector / industryFinancials / diversified banks
FYE / countryDec / US
Price · 52w range$60.90 · $45.02–$66.08
Market cap$94.9B
Filing anchorQ2-FY2026 (CQ2 CY2026), 10-Q filed Aug 6, 2026
TTMNet revenue $29.6B · diluted EPS $5.01 · net income $8.1B
P/TBV2.23x study basis · 2.03x company basis
Forward P/EFY26E 11.7x · FY27E 10.5x
ROTCE · CET118.7% · 10.8% (9.4% with AOCI)
YieldDividend 3.4% · total shareholder 4.4%

USB · price with moving averages

Daily · 6MWeekly · 3Y
$28$38$48$58$68 Sep '23Apr '24Nov '24Jun '25Jan '26Sep '26 BID
EMAs82140

Source: market data.

The business

U.S. Bancorp takes deposits from 13 million customers across 2,061 branches, lends at a spread, and runs a payments business most banks its size never built. The spread half is ordinary. The payments half is why the stock has carried a premium for thirty years: Elavon puts the card reader on the counter at the hotel front desk and the stadium concession stand, and the bank issues cards under other companies' brands. Payment Services is 23% of revenue.

The moat is $532.1B of deposits gathered across 26 states at a cost the bank sets rather than accepts, made stickier by that attachment.

Inside the complete Back of Napkin

  1. 01The business
  2. 02The numbers
  3. 03Management
  4. 04How it fails or surprises you
  5. 05The shape of the payoff
  6. 06Closing thoughts
  7. 07Methodology

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