Management and incentives

Coinbase Global, Inc. COIN

Coinbase paid Brian Armstrong $9,713,000 for 2025, and $8,713,000 of that was personal security and private aircraft rather than anything tied to results. His only live performance award is a 2020 option on 9,293,911 shares struck at $23.46, and it pays nothing further unless the share price holds at or above $320 for 60 consecutive sessions, then $360, then $400, before the option expires on August 10, 2030.

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Coinbase Global, Inc. COINThe bet you're really making is that people keep buying and selling crypto through Coinbase, and increasingly leave their cash sitting in its dollar-coin and staking accounts, where Coinbase earns a slice whether or not the market is hot. Underneath that, you're betting that when the buying and selling dries up, as it has the last three quarters, the money Coinbase makes on all that parked cash is enough to hold the business up. Right now it is going the wrong way: the money coming in fell 18.5% from a year ago, and the company has lost money three quarters running as crypto cooled. You pay about 41 times what it earned in its last full good year, 2025, and on the last twelve months there is nothing to put a multiple on, because it lost close to a billion dollars, its profits swinging from huge to negative inside a single year. Company reportSep 7 Coinbase Global, Inc. COINCoinbase's take rate rose from 0.310% to 0.374% while its volumes fell, which is the strongest pricing-power evidence in this analysis. Competitive advantageAug 25 TransUnion TRUThe bet you're really making is that American lenders keep checking people's credit, and that TransUnion, one of only three companies that keep those files, keeps selling more with every check. You're betting that when mortgage rates ease and home lending wakes up, those checks, which pay the most and have nearly vanished, come roaring back. Right now it is going well: sales grew about 10% last year and the company beat its own targets every quarter, though one big one-time gain flattered the headline profit early this year. You pay about seventeen times last year's adjusted earnings and about eleven times EBITDA on an enterprise-value basis, cheaper against its own past and its two rivals than at any point in the twelve years it has been public. Company reportSep 6 Morningstar, Inc. MORNThe bet you're really making is that money managers, financial advisors and banks keep paying Morningstar every year for its data, its ratings and its research, and keep paying a little more each year. You're betting that AI tools like Perplexity don't learn to hand out the same numbers free, which is the exact worry an analyst pressed the company on in August. Right now it is going well: revenue up about 10% to the biggest quarter in the company's history, and profit per share up more than a third from a year ago. You pay about 20 times trailing earnings and 15 times next year's, and measured against EBITDA the stock is near the cheapest it has been in twelve years. Company reportSep 6