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IREN Limited IREN

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The bet you're really making is that IREN keeps building giant computer warehouses in Texas and British Columbia, fills them with Nvidia chips, and rents that computing power to AI companies on multi-year contracts. You're betting it delivers those buildings on the exact dates it promised, spending $7.6 billion of borrowed money, before the loans come due and before the rental price of chips falls. Right now it looks shaky under the hood: sales shrank three quarters running as the old bitcoin-mining business faded, and last quarter it lost $684 million. The company has earned a profit in exactly one year of its life, so there is almost no record to price it against. You pay about four times the company's net worth and 39 times what analysts guess it will earn two years out, while it loses money today.

Key data

Price$44.68
52-week range$25.38 – $76.87
P/E, trailing / FY2028nm / 39x
Price / book value3.8x

IREN · price with moving averages

Daily · 6MWeekly · 3Y
$-2$16$33$51$68 Sep '23Apr '24Nov '24Jul '25Feb '26Sep '26 BID
EMAs82140

Source: market data.

The business

IREN owns land, power, and buildings. It began as a bitcoin miner, plugging cheap and largely renewable electricity into machines that earn bitcoin, and that is still where most of FY2026's $707 million in revenue came from. The new plan, the one the $16 billion market value rests on, is to turn those same power-rich sites into AI data centers: warehouses full of Nvidia B200 chips rented to AI companies under contracts that run for years. The filing lays out the machinery of the pivot, a Dell agreement to buy the GPU servers, customer contracts promising "contracted cash flows," and financing secured against the chips themselves. The moat, if there is one, is boring and real: permitted sites with signed power at a moment when megawatts, not chips, are the scarce input. What IREN does not yet have is the revenue. The AI story is almost entirely contracted and still ahead, while the reported business is a bitcoin miner whose quarterly sales are going the wrong way.

Inside the complete Back of Napkin

  1. 01The business
  2. 02The numbers
  3. 03Management
  4. 04How it fails or surprises you
  5. 05Closing thoughts
  6. 06Methodology

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