BID TerminalOpen complete report
Research library Banks

Back of Napkin

Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc. TCBI

Three-pass checkedFresh as companies report

Five years into rebuilding itself as an investment bank with a Texas balance sheet attached, Texas Capital still earns less on its tangible equity than it did in 2019, before the spending started.

The recovery off the 2023 bottom is real, it is decelerating fast, and the next four quarters decide whether this was a rebuild or an expensive detour.

Key data

Sector / industryFinancials / regional banks
FYE / countryDec / US
Price · 52w range$95.22 · $75.41 to $108.92
Market cap · shares$4.1B · 43.5M
Filing anchorQ2-FY2026 (CQ2 CY2026), filed Jul 23
TTM revenue · EPS$1.3B · $7.68
Price / tangible book1.24x on $76.98 TBVPS
Forward P/EFY26E 12.9x · FY27E 11.5x
Dividend$0.20 a quarter, initiated Apr 2026 · 0.8%

TCBI · price with moving averages

Daily · 6MWeekly · 3Y
$49$64$79$94$109 Sep '23Apr '24Nov '24Jun '25Jan '26Sep '26 BID
EMAs82140

Source: market data.

The business

Texas Capital is a $33.9B commercial bank lending to mid-sized companies across Dallas, Houston, Austin, Fort Worth and San Antonio. The $24.9B loan book is $13.0B commercial, $5.1B commercial real estate, and a $6.4B mortgage finance line warehousing loans for originators between closing and sale, a rate-driven volume business rather than a credit one.

Since 2021 Rob Holmes has been hiring investment bankers, a markets desk, and treasury and payments staff, so it can sell one Texas company a loan, then an acquisition, then the hedge, then its cash management. There is no moat here in the durable sense. It chases the same borrowers as Comerica and Cullen/Frost, both of which are larger and also Texas-headquartered, and its one edge is being a Texas-only balance sheet in a state whose economy keeps outgrowing the country.

Inside the complete Back of Napkin

  1. 01The business
  2. 02The numbers
  3. 03Management
  4. 04How it fails or surprises you
  5. 05The shape of the payoff
  6. 06Closing thoughts
  7. 07Methodology

Continue with TCBI

Get the complete Back of Napkin free.

Choose this as your free complete report. No card required.

Read the complete report

More company research

View all research
Popular, Inc. BPOPYou are paying $170 for a Puerto Rico deposit franchise that just printed $4.35 in a quarter and is retiring shares at a 7% annual clip. The bet turns on whether the credit book stays where it is now, because a bank compounding tangible book at this pace with a 1.7x P/TBV multiple is either mid-cycle cheap or one commercial vintage away from giving it all back. Back of Napkin Banco Santander (Brasil) S.A. BSBRYou are paying about nine times earnings and roughly nine-tenths of book for the Brazilian arm of a Spanish parent that earns half the return its two largest local rivals do. Back of Napkin Itaú Unibanco Holding S.A. ITUBSince the August print the ADR has climbed to $8.08 and the real firmed through R$5.10, so the same 22% return on equity now costs 8.9x forward earnings and 2.1x book, richer than the entry that was open three weeks ago and above the stock's own five-year book multiple. Back of Napkin Inter & Co, Inc. INTRInter trades at 1.26x book and under 9x trailing earnings, the multiple a market assigns a no-growth incumbent, while the bank inside it grew net revenue 32%, lifted return on equity 240 basis points to a record 16.3%, and cleared its own Rule of 50 in a quarter its stock spent more than 40% below the high. Back of Napkin