Blog
Essays on the businesses behind the tickers.
34 essays. The research library lives here.
US Investment Banks: Friends Don’t Let Friends Buy Levered Cyclicals When The Economy is Booming
My thoughts on investment banks, operating leverage, cyclicality, and managing risk.
August 27, 2026
INTU: Death, Taxes, and Increasing Prices on Your Customers
A deeper dive on a name that everyone is talking about, yet few really understand.
August 26, 2026 · INTU
Brazilian Financials: A Loan Can’t Be 90 Days Late Until It’s 90 Days Old
Why growth masks future credit risk and the quick read on Brazilian financials.
August 19, 2026
NAVI: Left for Dead and Under-covered. But Things Have Changed
A value trap no more hiding a growth engine with an accounting shift that helps the timing of earnings.
August 18, 2026 · NAVI
The Company Behind Your Mortgage Just Lost 38.5% in a Day While Turning a Profit?
How things changed fast at UWMC and why capital allocation matters.
August 7, 2026 · RKT
The Google Debate And Why Ads Rule Everything Around Me
A biased long's rebuttal to the secular decline argument on Google.
August 6, 2026 · GOOGL
Banks Are the Most Expensive They've Been in 16 Years
105 banks, every major market. Canada is the priciest. And what buying high in banks historically has cost investors.
August 5, 2026
The Price Is Right, The Timing Isn't
Two optically cheap names. One a payments company with a lending book and fancy airport lounges. Another likely the cheapest large cap ever.
July 30, 2026 · AXP
Nobody Can Pick Individual Momentum Winners, and That's The Good News
Momentum is a real, documented edge going back to the 1800s. It only pays if you stop trying to picking one offs.
July 28, 2026
You Are Not Discounting Risk Logically. Your Brain Is The Cause.
The influence technique you weren't meant to notice and why it's more dangerous to your investing than you would think.
July 27, 2026
Only an MIT Led Company Could Find a Way to Work with Alinea and Applebees
What to do when fundamentals inflect higher, multiples de-rate lower, and why cyclicality is never to be messed with.
July 23, 2026 · TOST
Yellow Pages Had a Great Moat, Until the Internet Came Along
The 3 companies most likely to be around in 20 years, the 6 worth exploring more, and why beaten down doesn't always mean worth buying.
July 22, 2026
Everything Around You Is Built to Make You Worse at Investing
The three enemies of compounding and why I founded BID to fight them
July 13, 2026
Trading at 6x earnings, $GPN appears cheap, but structural shifts loom. Explore how the $24B Worldpay merger and legacy tech stack are transitioning the company
December 4, 2025 · GPN
The 16x FCF Mirage: Should You Buy Uber?
Deeper analysis into Free Cash Flow and Uber's growth premium. Quantifying the AV and cyclical risk by modeling five future outcomes. And showing you the real b
November 25, 2025 · UBER
Flagstar (FLG): Still Somewhere Between A Dumpster Fire & A Discarded Gem
October 24, 2025 · FLG
Can Wise Outrun Stablecoins in the $32T Cross-Border Market?
Stablecoins cut fees in theory, but Wise is cutting them in practice.
September 24, 2025 · WISE
StoneCo: 14x Earnings for 20% EPS Growth?
PIX didn’t kill it, buybacks boosted it, and EPS is compounding faster than peers still priced richer.
September 19, 2025 · STNE
I'm Popular Now: How a Boring Bank Beat the Market
September 10, 2025 · BPOP
Straight Outta Sweden: Klarna’s $45B Hype, Its $7B Bottom, and the $14B IPO Test For Investors Today
September 8, 2025 · KLAR
The Math on Rocket: $5.8B Revenues, $40B Cap, and a $1.2T Rate Unlock
September 5, 2025 · RKT
The Quiet Deposit Bill That Could Reshape Banking, Kill Stablecoins, and Boost Regional Banks Stocks
August 11, 2025
The Fair-Value Flywheel: SoFi’s Greatest Strength and Its Darkest Shadow
How SoFi turns model-based loan marks into growth fuel, how it parallels MSTR and their crypto accounting, and how the same playbook could reverse fast.
August 5, 2025 · SOFI
The Most Hated Compounder in the Payments Space
EPS growth, buybacks, branded recovery, and a CEO who actually hits numbers
July 31, 2025 · PYPL
Citibank: Back Then Didn't Want Me, Now I'm Hot, They All On Me
A breakdown of Citi’s Q2 glow-up, from revenue growth to 24/7 tokenized payments, and how a bank everyone wrote off is quietly earning its way to another re-rat
July 17, 2025 · C
Everyone’s Talking About Circle. Almost No One Understands How It Actually Works.
Be careful blindly buying the hype and get a plain speak deep dive on who they are, what they do, how they make money, and their growth prospects.
June 10, 2025 · CRCL
Investment Banks Beneath the Surface: Capturing the Winners and Fading the Fakes
A market neutral way to play the investment banks
May 8, 2025
They Were the Villain of Dumb Money. I Hated Them Too. Until I Saw the Numbers.
A 7 min read on a name I hated ... and then didn't hate.
April 1, 2025 · HOOD
Cash Is Dead: Inside the $32 Trillion Payments Ecosystem
Meet the companies shaping the future of money: giants, challengers, and niche disruptors poised to be the biggest winners in the cashless revolution.
January 29, 2025
A Bank Long with Midwestern Values & A Trusted Track Record
January 14, 2025 · WTFC
UK Banks: It's Not Exactly Difficult
Sometimes it pays to not overcomplicate things ...
October 30, 2024 · BARC
Riding the Mortgage Market Tailwinds
September 19, 2024 · COOP